Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries
Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain informa...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier B.V.
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | View Fulltext in Publisher |