Simulation and Performance Analysis of Strategic Air Traffic Management under Weather Uncertainty

• Main Author: Zhou, Yi
• Other Authors: Scharnberg, William
• Format: Others
• Language: English
• Published: University of North Texas 2011
• Subjects: Weather; jump-linear; Markov chain
• Online Access: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc68071/

In this thesis, I introduce a promising framework for representing an air traffic flow (stream) and flow-management action operating under weather uncertainty. I propose to use a meshed queuing and Markov-chain model---specifically, a queuing model whose service-rates are modulated by an underlying Markov chain describing weather-impact evolution---to capture traffic management in an uncertain environment. Two techniques for characterizing flow-management performance using the model are developed, namely 1) a master-Markov-chain representation technique that yields accurate results but at relatively high computational cost, and 2) a jump-linear system-based approximation that has promising scalability. The model formulation and two analysis techniques are illustrated with numerous examples. Based on this initial study, I believe that the interfaced weather-impact and traffic-flow model analyzed here holds promise to inform strategic flow contingency management in NextGen.