| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 商學研究所 === 106 === With the continuous development of the retail industry, the boundaries between online and offline are gradually blurred, and the customers who simply choose either online or offline to shopping are gradually decreasing. More customers are shopping in both ways. The preferences of the potential consumers is affected by multiple factors in a form of system. The factors in the system are corelated to each other, and changing one of them will have an impact on others.
The research has conducted a system dynamics analysis based on the Bass diffusion model. The model can simulate the consumer flow between the online and offline in the timeline, by controlling the loop’s status value, the variances can help to explore the key influencing factors. And through the profit model shows the change of the profit.
The results of the study found that the online or offline customers in the process of transitioning to full-channel customers, the delay effect caused by the transfer of usage scenarios will have an impact on the number of offline customers, the number of reachable persons of social network platforms will affect the rate of conversion. Leading potential customers to consumption has a greater impact on profitability. Retailers invest in directing customers'' full-channel shopping. They also need to lead potential consumers to purchase and thus ensure profit maximization.
This research use dynamic simulation of the simplified model of the online and offline conversion process through system dynamics, to show the changes in different conditions from short-term to long-term, and it is also the first time that the Bass diffusion model is applied online and offline conversion system. In the follow-up studies, the model foundation can be provided, and the research can be carried out by increasing the complexity of the model. At the same time, it also provides the model foundation for system dynamics for the online offline forecasting and analysis of retail sales.
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