| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 管理科學學系碩士班 === 104 === Sales forecasting is a crucial issue that many companies pay concentrate on. Among fashion industry, due to the rapid change of fashion trend, unstable consumer demand and short product life cycle, accurate sales forecasting is able to avoid loss of benefits. As for the improvement of information technology, business model of virtual channel is also develop further. Many fashion retailer add the physical and virtual channels, combining physical store with Internet store to implement the marketing strategy with integration of physical and virtual Channel, in order to achieve higher profit models.
Conform to the Multiple-channel time, the paper adopts the data of fashion industry and also considers the historical sales data , seasonality and climatic factors. And using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and general linear regression to construct the sales forecasting model. To explore the main factors that impact the sales result of physical and virtual channel in the fashion industry.
The empirical results of the research, this forecasting model and conclusion can be consulted for decision making by the business manager. Also can understand the role of important factors in either positive or negative sides which affect future sales. In conclusion, the research is beneficial for the company to do products forecasting and improve marketing strategies efficiently within highly complicated sales forecasting.
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