A Study in the Trigger Effectiveness Influence to New Product Diffusion

• Main Authors: Wei-Chien Hung, 洪偉傑
• Other Authors: Wei-Hua Andrew Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2008
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/68282836489845835528

碩士 === 東海大學 === 工業工程與經營資訊學系 === 96 === The objective of this thesis is to forecast the sales of the new product effectively. We adopt the famous Bass diffusion model as our research and then modify and extend the diffusion model. Thus we can observe the diffusion of new product and forecast the sales of new product. However, we also observe that the sales of some products have increased rapidly in short term. In other words, the sales situation looks like a curve; before the critical point of the curve, only fewer customers adopt the new products, but after the critical point, more customers adopt the new product, and the sale curve has increased rapidly. So we support the circumstance was influenced by the trigger effectiveness. According to the reference reviewing, there isn’t any research about the concept of trigger effectiveness, hence we attempt to combine the concept of trigger effectiveness with the traditional Bass diffusion model in order to study the trigger effectiveness influence to the new product diffusion. In this research, system dynamics is also adopted to model our research constructions , hence we adopt the model constructions proposed by Paich and Sterman in 1993 as the casual model and adopt the diffusion model proposed by Bass in 1994 as the mathematic models. In order to verify the feasibility of trigger effectiveness, we compare the traditional Bass diffusion model with our concept model in actual example. The result shows that the trigger effectiveness actually increases the forecasting performance of Bass diffusion model, and explain well with the circumstance of some new products.