| Summary: | 博士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 營建工程系 === 95 === Contractors usually adopt deterministic estimates to evaluate construction project durations and costs without the consideration of uncertainties. In the environment congested with uncertainties, it is not appropriate to evaluate or control construction projects with a deterministic estimate which is calculated without uncertainty concerns. Thus, this dissertation endeavors to enhance the existing evaluation mechanism for project durations, cost, and controlling.
In the prospect of project durations, this dissertation finds that the extensions of factor statuses have been ignored in the factor-functioning mechanism. This ignorance leads to the underestimation of variation of simulated construction project durations. To deal with this shortcoming, the paper develops the Extended Factor-Functioning Mechanism to extend the original factor-functioning mechanism. Furthermore, this dissertation also proposes a corresponding simulation process to help project managers to introduce the extended factor statuses into simulating construction project durations
In the prospect of project costs, this dissertation finds that little attention is paid to the rate stability. The neglect of the rate stability results in the inaccurate estimate of project cost variance. To tackle this problem, this dissertation proposes the Two-Dimensional Cost Rate Model (2D-CORA), to explicitly evaluate the variation due to the rate stability on project costs. In addition, a corresponding simulation process which can assist the project managers in conducting the rate stability into simulations of project costs is built as well.
Finally, in the prospect of project controlling, this dissertation finds that the recommended method for dealing with the performance correlation employed in the previous studies has room for improving. The method ignores that performance deviations may be a normal consequence in the real world, and may lead to an arbitrary estimate of the project performance. Accordingly, this dissertation proposes the Factor-based Stochastic S-Curves (FaSS-Curve) which can properly handle the performance correlation to enhance the SS-Curves. Likewise, a corresponding simulation process is also developed to help project mangers to employ the FaSS-Curves.
In sum, this dissertation endeavors to enhance the existing evaluation mechanism for project durations, costs, and controlling. To fulfill these purposes, three mechanisms are developed in the prospects of project durations, costs, and controlling, respectively. Using these mechanisms and their corresponding simulation processes, project mangers can comprehensively consider the construction environment. Thereafter, managers are able to analyze projects comprehensively, obtain accurate project estimates, and realize the inherent risk of projects they confront.
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