| Summary: | 為了針對實證股價與交易量的資訊，能否作為預測未來政治事件結果提供依據，此篇論文探究四個政治事件，分別是2014年台北市長選舉國民黨黨內初選、2014年台北市長選舉、2016年總統選舉國民黨更換候選人以及2016年總統選舉。作者使用異常交易量作為判斷投資人是否將政治事件視為投資機會，並觀察個股與投資組合之累積異常報酬率是否能作為預測依據，最後以事件後五日內的異常累積報酬判斷投資人是否在事前過度反應或是反應不足。
本研究發現，在政治事件發生前六十日內，大部分政治相關的個股交易量皆顯著異於前一年之交易量。與勝選相關的股票在事件前60日至31日有顯著的正累積異常報酬。相較之下，與敗選相關的股票中，僅有和候選人有緊密政治連結的股票有顯著負累積異常報酬，政策相關的股票並無顯著負累計異常報酬。最後，在現行交易制度下，正異常報酬伴隨著正異常交易量，而負異常報酬卻因放空限制等因素，無顯著正異常交易量。
=== This paper analyzes the last four political events, which includes KMT's Taipei Mayoral Primary, Taipei Mayor Election, KMT Presidential Candidate Replacement and Taiwan Presidential Election. We use trading volume to detect whether investors join the market due to potential political investment opportunity. Then we examine the CAR tendency with the political event results to identify its forecast ability. Last, we detect CAR within 5 days later to find if investor overreact or underreact before the event day.
We find that the CAR meets voters’ political anticipation before the event window. Investors believe they can time the market through these events and gain profit. Furthermore, stocks relevant to those elects experience positive CAR. In contrast, stocks relevant to those also-rans do not experience significant returns. The only fortuneteller is the company, which has close relationship to the defeated candidate, telling with negative CAR. Because of short-sale constrains, the trading volume are not larger than before even it is a good chance to gain profit in the political events.
|
|---|
