The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017
Abstract This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for 1974–2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-019-0044-4 |