COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS

The better the model, the more features of the problem it explains. However, showing that the model has similarities to that of a phenomena is often less significant in applications due to lack of data. Forecasting, as special application of modelling, is neither an exception: besides statistical da...

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Main Author:	Peter Alacs
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Croatian Interdisciplinary Society 2004-06-01
Series:	Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems
Subjects:	complex systems futures studies foresight modelling time horizon
Online Access:	http://indecs.eu/2004/indecs2004-pp88-94.pdf

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spelling	doaj-d74de0dc897e4cdcada4615b6f3b3c3c2020-11-24T20:55:54ZengCroatian Interdisciplinary SocietyInterdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems1334-46841334-46762004-06-01218894COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMSPeter AlacsThe better the model, the more features of the problem it explains. However, showing that the model has similarities to that of a phenomena is often less significant in applications due to lack of data. Forecasting, as special application of modelling, is neither an exception: besides statistical data one should use several types of subjective assumptions about the present and the future state of the model. In case of complex models, this fact is extremely important, because these models use often unobservable, hidden or - regarding its future evolution - uncertain variables. We developed a simple mathematical approach how these uncertainties can be managed in the model. We shall also show how these uncertainties can influence the behaviour of modelled variables, and how an approximate for time horizon of forecasts can be calculated.http://indecs.eu/2004/indecs2004-pp88-94.pdfcomplex systemsfutures studiesforesightmodellingtime horizon
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Peter Alacs
spellingShingle	Peter Alacs COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems complex systems futures studies foresight modelling time horizon
author_facet	Peter Alacs
author_sort	Peter Alacs
title	COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS
title_short	COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS
title_full	COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS
title_fullStr	COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS
title_full_unstemmed	COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS
title_sort	complexity and uncertainty in the forecasting of complex social systems
publisher	Croatian Interdisciplinary Society
series	Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems
issn	1334-4684 1334-4676
publishDate	2004-06-01
description	The better the model, the more features of the problem it explains. However, showing that the model has similarities to that of a phenomena is often less significant in applications due to lack of data. Forecasting, as special application of modelling, is neither an exception: besides statistical data one should use several types of subjective assumptions about the present and the future state of the model. In case of complex models, this fact is extremely important, because these models use often unobservable, hidden or - regarding its future evolution - uncertain variables. We developed a simple mathematical approach how these uncertainties can be managed in the model. We shall also show how these uncertainties can influence the behaviour of modelled variables, and how an approximate for time horizon of forecasts can be calculated.
topic	complex systems futures studies foresight modelling time horizon
url	http://indecs.eu/2004/indecs2004-pp88-94.pdf
work_keys_str_mv	AT peteralacs complexityanduncertaintyintheforecastingofcomplexsocialsystems
_version_	1716791529763241984

COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTING OF COMPLEX SOCIAL SYSTEMS

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