Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches

Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches

Background: Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: David J. Blok, Ronald E. Crump, Ram Sundaresh, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, Alison P. Galvani, Travis C. Porco, Sake J. de Vlas, Graham F. Medley, Jan Hendrik Richardus
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2017-03-01
Series:Epidemics
Subjects:
Leprosy
Brazil
Model comparison
LMER
Back-calculation
Compartmental
Individual-based model
Forecast
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543651630072X

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175543651630072X

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