Effects of environmental change on agriculture, nutrition and health: A framework with a focus on fruits and vegetables [version 2; referees: 2 approved]

• Main Authors: Hanna L. Tuomisto, Pauline F.D. Scheelbeek, Zaid Chalabi, Rosemary Green, Richard D. Smith, Andy Haines, Alan D. Dangour
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Wellcome 2017-10-01
• Series: Wellcome Open Research
• Subjects: Agriculture & Biotechnology; Global Change Ecology; Global Health
• Online Access: https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/2-21/v2

Environmental changes are likely to affect agricultural production over the next  decades. The interactions between environmental change, agricultural yields and crop quality, and the critical pathways to future diets and health outcomes are largely undefined. There are currently no quantitative models to test the impact of multiple environmental changes on nutrition and health outcomes. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we developed a framework to link the multiple interactions between environmental change, agricultural productivity and crop quality, population-level food availability, dietary intake and health outcomes, with a specific focus on fruits and vegetables. The main components of the framework consist of: i) socio-economic and societal factors, ii) environmental change stressors, iii) interventions and policies, iv) food system activities, v) food and nutrition security, and vi) health and well-being outcomes. The framework, based on currently available evidence, provides an overview of the multidimensional and complex interactions with feedback between environmental change, production of fruits and vegetables, diets and health, and forms the analytical basis for future modelling and scenario testing.