Theoretical conditions for the coexistence of viral strains with differences in phenotypic traits: a bifurcation analysis

• Main Authors: Anel Nurtay, Matthew G. Hennessy, Josep Sardanyés, Lluís Alsedà, Santiago F. Elena
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: The Royal Society 2019-01-01
• Series: Royal Society Open Science
• Subjects: bifurcations; epidemiology; infection dynamics; mathematical biology; virus evolution
• Online Access: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.181179

We investigate the dynamics of a wild-type viral strain which generates mutant strains differing in phenotypic properties for infectivity, virulence and mutation rates. We study, by means of a mathematical model and bifurcation analysis, conditions under which the wild-type and mutant viruses, which compete for the same host cells, can coexist. The coexistence conditions are formulated in terms of the basic reproductive numbers of the strains, a maximum value of the mutation rate and the virulence of the pathogens. The analysis reveals that parameter space can be divided into five regions, each with distinct dynamics, that are organized around degenerate Bogdanov–Takens and zero-Hopf bifurcations, the latter of which gives rise to a curve of transcritical bifurcations of periodic orbits. These results provide new insights into the conditions by which viral populations may contain multiple coexisting strains in a stable manner.