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|a To provide a scientific basis for pollution prevention and control of the urban environment, the current status of heavy-metal pollution in road dust in Harbin was studied. In total, 63 road dust samples in the main urban area of Harbin were collected, and the contents of Cd and Pb, two representative heavy metals, were detected. Using the Moran Index coupled with semi-variable function and geostatistical methods, the spatial correlation, variation structure, and distribution pattern were analyzed, and the estimated probability of the heavy metals exceeding the safety standard was determined. The study showed that: The mean concentrations of Cd and Pb were higher than the background values in Heilongjiang province, and both exhibited moderate variability, while the coefficient of variation of Cd was larger than that of Pb; Cd was weakly correlated in space and randomly distributed, Pb was moderately correlated in space and exhibited good spatial structure, and both were spatially aggregated. The optimal model for fitting the variance function showed that Cd was a spherical model, and Pb was an exponential model. The variation of Cd was mainly influenced by human factors, and the variation of Pb was influenced by both structural and random factors. The optimized interpolation results of the variance function had high accuracy, and the spatial distribution of Cd was elliptical, whereas the distribution of Pb was stripe-shaped, Cd was mainly influenced by traffic factors, such as industrial enterprise distribution and road painting, while Pb was influenced by natural factors such as river sediment or the study area belonging to a geologically high background area, in addition to the above factors. The estimated probabilities indicate a higher potential risk of Cd in the northeastern part of the study area. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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