Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

• Main Authors: Kurita, J. (Author), Ohkusa, Y. (Author), Sugawara, T. (Author), Sugishita, Y. (Author)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science 2021
• Subjects: Article; clinical decision making; clinical effectiveness; clinical feature; clinical outcome; controlled study; coronavirus disease 2019; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; education program; epidemic; epidemiological data; evidence based practice; health care policy; human; Humans; infection control; infection risk; infection sensitivity; Japan; Models, Statistical; pandemic; Pandemics; prevention and control; risk reduction; school; school health service; Schools; statistical model; voluntary event cancellation and school closure
• Online Access: View Fulltext in Publisher

 Background To control the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled and schools were closed throughout Japan from February 26 through March 19. That policy has been designated as voluntary event cancellation and school closure (VECSC). Object This study assesses VECSC effectiveness based on predicted outcomes. Methods A simple susceptible–infected–recovered model was applied to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during January 14 through March 26. The respective reproduction numbers for periods before VECSC (R0), during VECSC (Re), and after VECSC (Ra) were estimated. Results Results suggest R0 before VECSC as 2.534 [2.449, 2.598], Re during VECSC as 1.077 [0.948, 1.228], and Ra after VECSC as 4.455 [3.615, 5.255]. Discussion and conclusion Results demonstrated that VECSC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness considerably, but after VECSC, the value of the reproduction number rose to exceed 4.0. © 2020 Sugishita et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.