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01290nam a2200145Ia 4500 |
| 001 |
10.1111-jofi.12819 |
| 008 |
220511s2019 CNT 000 0 und d |
| 020 |
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|a 00221082 (ISSN)
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| 245 |
1 |
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|a Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes
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| 260 |
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|b Blackwell Publishing Ltd
|c 2019
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| 856 |
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|z View Fulltext in Publisher
|u https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12819
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| 520 |
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|a Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within-individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals. © 2019 the American Finance Association
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Kuchler, T.
|e author
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Zafar, B.
|e author
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| 773 |
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|t Journal of Finance
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