Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change

• Main Authors: Adams, T. (Author), Aumont, O. (Author), Bell, J.D (Author), Calmettes, B. (Author), Clark, S. (Author), Dessert, M. (Author), Gehlen, M. (Author), Gorgues, T. (Author), Gupta, A.S (Author), Hampton, J. (Author), Hanich, Q. (Author), Harden-Davies, H. (Author), Hare, S.R (Author), Holmes, G. (Author), Lehodey, P. (Author), Lengaigne, M. (Author), Mansfield, W. (Author), Menkes, C. (Author), Nicol, S. (Author), Ota, Y. (Author), Pasisi, C. (Author), Pilling, G. (Author), Reid, C. (Author), Ronneberg, E. (Author), Senina, I. (Author), Seto, K.L (Author), Smith, N. (Author), Taei, S. (Author), Tsamenyi, M. (Author), Williams, P. (Author)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Research 2021
• Subjects: Climate change; Economics; Fish; Fisheries; Fisheries management; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Lower emissions; Pacific islands; Purse seines; Small island developing state; Sustainable development; Sustainable management; Total biomass; Tuna fisheries
• Online Access: View Fulltext in Publisher
• ISBN: 23989629 (ISSN)
• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00745-z

Climate-driven redistribution of tuna threatens to disrupt the economies of Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and sustainable management of the world’s largest tuna fishery. Here we show that by 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of ten Pacific SIDS could decline by an average of 13% (range = −5% to −20%) due to a greater proportion of fish occurring in the high seas. The potential implications for Pacific Island economies in 2050 include an average decline in purse-seine catch of 20% (range = −10% to −30%), an average annual loss in regional tuna-fishing access fees of US