Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records

Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for improving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, o...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Donges, J.F (Author), Donner, R.V (Author), Eroglu, D. (Author), Marwan, N. (Author)
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier Ltd 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:View Fulltext in Publisher
LEADER 03780nam a2200577Ia 4500
001 10.1016-j.quascirev.2021.107245
008 220427s2021 CNT 000 0 und d
020 |a 02773791 (ISSN) 
245 1 0 |a Nonlinear time series analysis of palaeoclimate proxy records 
260 0 |b Elsevier Ltd  |c 2021 
856 |z View Fulltext in Publisher  |u https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107245 
520 3 |a Identifying and characterising dynamical regime shifts, critical transitions or potential tipping points in palaeoclimate time series is relevant for improving the understanding of often highly nonlinear Earth system dynamics. Beyond linear changes in time series properties such as mean, variance, or trend, these nonlinear regime shifts can manifest as changes in signal predictability, regularity, complexity, or higher-order stochastic properties such as multi-stability. In recent years, several classes of methods have been put forward to study these critical transitions in time series data that are based on concepts from nonlinear dynamics, complex systems science, information theory, and stochastic analysis. These include approaches such as phase space-based recurrence plots and recurrence networks, visibility graphs, order pattern-based entropies, and stochastic modelling. Here, we review and compare in detail several prominent methods from these fields by applying them to the same set of marine palaeoclimate proxy records of African climate variations during the past 5 million years. Applying these methods, we observe notable nonlinear transitions in palaeoclimate dynamics in these marine proxy records and discuss them in the context of important climate events and regimes such as phases of intensified Walker circulation, marine isotope stage M2, the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation and the mid-Pleistocene transition. We find that the studied approaches complement each other by allowing us to point out distinct aspects of dynamical regime shifts in palaeoclimate time series. We also detect significant correlations of these nonlinear regime shift indicators with variations of Earth's orbit, suggesting the latter as potential triggers of nonlinear transitions in palaeoclimate. Overall, the presented study underlines the potentials of nonlinear time series analysis approaches to provide complementary information on dynamical regime shifts in palaeoclimate and their driving processes that cannot be revealed by linear statistics or eyeball inspection of the data alone. © 2021 The Authors 
650 0 4 |a Chaos theory 
650 0 4 |a climate 
650 0 4 |a Climate transition 
650 0 4 |a Climate transition 
650 0 4 |a Complex networks 
650 0 4 |a Dynamical regime 
650 0 4 |a Earth 
650 0 4 |a Earth (planet) 
650 0 4 |a Glacial geology 
650 0 4 |a glaciation 
650 0 4 |a Harmonic analysis 
650 0 4 |a Information theory 
650 0 4 |a marine isotope stage 
650 0 4 |a Nonlinear analysis 
650 0 4 |a Nonlinear time series analysis 
650 0 4 |a Nonlinear time-series analysis 
650 0 4 |a Orbits 
650 0 4 |a Palaeoclimate 
650 0 4 |a Palaeoclimate proxy 
650 0 4 |a Palaeoclimate proxy 
650 0 4 |a paleoclimate 
650 0 4 |a Phase space methods 
650 0 4 |a Pleistocene 
650 0 4 |a Pleistocene 
650 0 4 |a Pliocene 
650 0 4 |a Pliocene 
650 0 4 |a Proxy records 
650 0 4 |a Regime shift 
650 0 4 |a Regime shift 
650 0 4 |a Stochastic systems 
650 0 4 |a time series analysis 
650 0 4 |a Time series analysis 
650 0 4 |a Times series 
650 0 4 |a visibility 
700 1 |a Donges, J.F.  |e author 
700 1 |a Donner, R.V.  |e author 
700 1 |a Eroglu, D.  |e author 
700 1 |a Marwan, N.  |e author 
773 |t Quaternary Science Reviews