Relationship Between the California Drought and Almond Demand

• Main Author: Lacy, Wayne E.
• Format: Others
• Language: en
• Published: ScholarWorks 2017
• Subjects: Almond; Correlation; Demand; Multiple Regression; Quantitative; Supply; Agriculture; Business; Water Resource Management
• Online Access: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/4648; https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5928&context=dissertations

Areas of California's Central Valley are sinking at rates up to 1 foot per year due to subsidence caused, in part, by the state's years-long drought, challenging growers to locate additional water sources for their crops. Supply and demand theory guided this correlational study. The purpose of the study was to examine the financial impact of drought on almond demand. This study included annualized historical almond industry data for the United States (N = 97), downloaded from a United States Department of Agriculture database. The results of multiple linear regression analysis indicated that the model was capable of predicting almond demand, F(3,92) = 483.579, p < .001, R2 = .940. Both supply and price were statistically significant in the final model, with supply (p < .001) accounting for a higher contribution to the model than price (p = .015). Fine effect's contribution (p = .267) to the model was not statistically significant. The results of this study could enable almond industry leaders to increase profit margins through market predictability understanding and mitigate fiscal risks associated with variable labor and groundwater pumping costs. The implications for positive social change include the potential to restore employment opportunities, stabilize migratory worker prospects, and reduce water utilization to preserve natural resources.