Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

xii, 127 p. ： ill. (some col.) === I developed software to incorporate the FlamMap fire model into an agent-based model, Envision, to enable the exploration of relationships between wildfire, land use, climate change, and vegetation dynamics in the Willamette Valley. A dynamic-link library plug-i...

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Main Author:	Sheehan, Timothy J.
Language:	en_US
Published:	University of Oregon 2012
Subjects:	Ecology Natural resources > Management Computer science Health and environmental sciences Applied science Biological sciences Ignitions Lightning Willamette Valley Willamette River Valley (Or.)
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/1794/12184

id	ndltd-uoregon.edu-oai-scholarsbank.uoregon.edu-1794-12184
record_format	oai_dc
spelling	ndltd-uoregon.edu-oai-scholarsbank.uoregon.edu-1794-121842018-12-20T05:47:58Z Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon Sheehan, Timothy J. Ecology Natural resources -- Management Computer science Health and environmental sciences Applied science Biological sciences Ignitions Lightning Willamette Valley Willamette River Valley (Or.) xii, 127 p. ： ill. (some col.) I developed software to incorporate the FlamMap fire model into an agent-based model, Envision, to enable the exploration of relationships between wildfire, land use, climate change, and vegetation dynamics in the Willamette Valley. A dynamic-link library plug-in utilizing row-ordered compressed array lookup tables converts parameters between polygon-based Envision data and grid-based FlamMap data. Modeled fires are determined through Monte-Carlo draws against a set of possible fires by linking historic fire data to future climate projections. I used classification and regression tree (CART) and logistic regression to relate ignitions to human and land use factors in the Willamette Valley above the valley floor from 2000-2009. Both methods showed decreasing distance to major and minor roads as key factors that increase ignition probability for human ignitions but not for lightning ignitions. The resulting statistical model is implemented in the FlamMap plug-in to provide a dynamic ignition probability map over time. Committee in charge: Dr. Bart Johnson， Co-Chair； Dr. Scott Bridgham ，Co-Chair； Dr. John Bolte； Member 2012-04-20T01:21:54Z 2012-04-20T01:21:54Z 2011-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/1794/12184 en_US University of Oregon theses, Dept. of Biology, M.S, 2011; rights_reserved University of Oregon
collection	NDLTD
language	en_US
sources	NDLTD
topic	Ecology Natural resources -- Management Computer science Health and environmental sciences Applied science Biological sciences Ignitions Lightning Willamette Valley Willamette River Valley (Or.)
spellingShingle	Ecology Natural resources -- Management Computer science Health and environmental sciences Applied science Biological sciences Ignitions Lightning Willamette Valley Willamette River Valley (Or.) Sheehan, Timothy J. Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon
description	xii, 127 p. ： ill. (some col.) === I developed software to incorporate the FlamMap fire model into an agent-based model, Envision, to enable the exploration of relationships between wildfire, land use, climate change, and vegetation dynamics in the Willamette Valley. A dynamic-link library plug-in utilizing row-ordered compressed array lookup tables converts parameters between polygon-based Envision data and grid-based FlamMap data. Modeled fires are determined through Monte-Carlo draws against a set of possible fires by linking historic fire data to future climate projections. I used classification and regression tree (CART) and logistic regression to relate ignitions to human and land use factors in the Willamette Valley above the valley floor from 2000-2009. Both methods showed decreasing distance to major and minor roads as key factors that increase ignition probability for human ignitions but not for lightning ignitions. The resulting statistical model is implemented in the FlamMap plug-in to provide a dynamic ignition probability map over time. === Committee in charge: Dr. Bart Johnson， Co-Chair； Dr. Scott Bridgham ，Co-Chair； Dr. John Bolte； Member
author	Sheehan, Timothy J.
author_facet	Sheehan, Timothy J.
author_sort	Sheehan, Timothy J.
title	Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon
title_short	Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon
title_full	Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon
title_fullStr	Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon
title_sort	modeling wildfire and ignitions for climate change and alternative land management scenarios in the willamette valley, oregon
publisher	University of Oregon
publishDate	2012
url	http://hdl.handle.net/1794/12184
work_keys_str_mv	AT sheehantimothyj modelingwildfireandignitionsforclimatechangeandalternativelandmanagementscenariosinthewillamettevalleyoregon
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Modeling Wildfire and Ignitions for Climate Change and Alternative Land Management Scenarios in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

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