| Summary: | A lack of empirical evidence to understand neighborhood and residential
development processes within neighborhoods has challenged urban planners’ ability to
influence the course of future land development. The main objectives of this study were
to examine neighborhood and residential development patterns and investigate dynamic
processes in northwest Harris County, Texas, along the U.S. Highway 290 transportation
corridor from 1945 to 2006.
Researchers have identified different patterns of land development: leapfrog,
contagion and infill development. However, because of the fuzziness in neighborhood
and residential development patterns, the nominal classifications of development
patterns are limited in their potential to characterize development patterns both on
neighborhood and parcel levels; their applications for development processes and its
impacts are even more limited. This study presents a quantitative approach for
measuring development patterns by characterizing neighborhood development patterns
as a function of spatial distance and temporal lapse time from the closest existing
neighborhood to new neighborhood(s). The analysis in this study was based on disaggregated parcel data provided by the Harris County Appraisal District (HCAD) real
estate and property records. The quantitative measures of neighborhood development
patterns and processes within each pattern of neighborhood were derived by aggregating
parcel level data into neighborhood level. This study developed the Long-term Trend of
Development Model (LTDM) to classify neighborhood and residential development
patterns based on spatial distance and temporal lapse time from existing neighborhoods
to new neighborhood(s) each year to examine development processes. Regression
analysis was used to identify the relationship between neighborhood patterns and
residential development processes.
This study found that development patterns can be measured quantitatively with
spatial and temporal relationships between prior and new development at the
neighborhood level. Empirical evidence supported the hypothesis that leapfrog
neighborhood development triggers neighborhood development, contagion follows
leapfrog neighborhood quickly, and infill follows contagion after a lapsed time.
Residential development patterns in each pattern of neighborhood showed discrete
development processes. Age of neighborhood can be used to predict development
pressures and growth. In this process, physical and social infrastructure is involved,
therefore, development process is best observed on the neighborhood level.
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