| Summary: | Predictability of primary succession in post-mining sites is needed for choosing appropriate restoration method. This study models 18 years of spontaneous succession on a post mining heap in Sokolov in the Czech republic with using historical aerial photographs and spatially - analytical methods. Each photograph has been georeferenced and classified manually into several categories based on the tree density. Three spatial models that applied different population growth equations and seed diffusion from the near neighbourhood has been developed. All models were able to predict spatial distribution of trees with solid accuracy, however, predictability were decreasing with time. The best results corresponded with 40% agreement on average from all years and more than 50% for some individual years. Keywords: spontaneous succession, spatial models, post-mining sites
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