An analysis of promotion to 0-4 in the 1983 cohort

• Main Author: Tu, Li-Wei
• Other Authors: Webb, Natalie J.
• Language: en_US
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/7942

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. === This thesis uses data from the 1983 cohort file merged with a college file obtained from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC). This analysis focuses on the promotion rates of graduates of historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). I estimate a model of promotion to LCDR 0-4 using a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (logistic) technique. I report the results using the 'notional-person' approach; reporting the marginal effect of changes in the explanatory variables on promotion to LCDR. Results of the study include: female promotion rates are higher than that of males, promotion rates are higher for graduates of aviation officer training programs than for graduates of military academies or ROTC programs. Finally, promotion rates for officers who graduated from HBCUs are not significantly different than promotion rates for other officers