An estimation of the ability to forecast boundary layer mixing height and wind parameters through forecast verification over Fort Ord

• Main Author: Gahard, Claude F.
• Other Authors: Nuss, Wendell A
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/6316

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. === Conducting controlled burns at Fort Ord requires specific meteorological and operational criteria. A minimum five-mile per hour offshore wind flow in conjunction with a minimum lower vertical mixing height of 1500 ft is meteorologically required. Burn contractor operational constraints require these meteorological parameters to be forecast 72 hours prior to burn. This study establishes forecast verification percentage baselines for offshore and onshore winds. These forecasts are verified by analyses at 850 mb and profiler observations, from the surface to 1500 ft, at 24, 48, and 72 hr forecast durations. From these baselines the forecast skill when including a second burn prescription parameter, lower vertical mixing height, is inferred. Resulting forecast verification percentages using profiler observations of offshore wind flow were less than 40% at all forecast durations. Results indicate that during the burn season (July through December) the synoptic scale forecasts do not adequately represent the local wind field over Fort Ord. As the burn season progresses synoptic scale forcing becomes stronger and mesoscale forcing weakens over Fort Ord, favoring forecast verification with profiler observations. Lastly, the inferred forecast skill of both offshore wind flow from the surface to 1500 ft and the minimum vertical lower mixing height simultaneously at all durations is 10%