Information-generated effects

• Main Author: Gibbs, Stephen R.
• Other Authors: Rothstein, Hy
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4991

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited === This thesis researches three types of information-generated effects that are often observed in police operations: 1) anticipatory effects, 2) diffusion effects, and 3) residual effects. These information generated effects depict the fact that criminal activity often decreases before a new police operation starts, decreases outside the geographical areas where the police operations are occurring, and regularly remains lower for an extended period of time after an operation has concluded. These disruptions in criminal activity are thought to occur because of an increase in the perceptions of risk and uncertainty in response to information about changes in enforcement presence and activities. The purpose of this research is to propose that anticipatory effects, diffusion effects, and residual effects can be planned into counterinsurgency operations to increase their effectiveness. These effects might be achieved through the oscillatory use of information operations that target an insurgent's perceptions of risk and uncertainty about security force operations occurring in circumscribed areas.