Meteorological and model traits knowledge bases for North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones

• Main Author: Spollen, Rachael A.
• Other Authors: Elsberry, Russell L.
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4480

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited === These tropical cyclone Meteorology and Model Traits Knowledge Bases for the North Indian Ocean (NIO) complete the global coverage required for application of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting introduced by Carr and Elsberry (1994). The database for the NIO Meteorological Knowledge Base includes 64 storms during 1991-2001. All of the 656 cases could be classified in three common synoptic patterns that have been found to apply in other basins, with no unique patterns. About 75% of the cases are in the standard pattern. This preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base includes only eight tropical cyclones during 2000-2001. The model forecast track errors are relatively small, and only 33%, 62%, and 70% of the Navy global, regional, and UK Meteorological Office models, respectively, exceed 150 n mi at 72 h. Only 12 cases of large (> 225 n mi at 72 h) track forecast errors occur. Half of these large-error cases are associated with erroneous model predictions in the midlatitudes. One third of the large errors originate from improper model treatments of the tropical circulations, and the remaining two cases originate from erroneous initial cyclone positions. Since these are the same error sources as in other basins, the Systematic Approach has global application.