| Summary: | Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited === These tropical cyclone Meteorology and Model Traits Knowledge Bases
for the North Indian Ocean (NIO) complete the global coverage required for application
of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting introduced by Carr and
Elsberry (1994). The database for the NIO Meteorological Knowledge Base includes 64
storms during 1991-2001. All of the 656 cases could be classified in three common
synoptic patterns that have been found to apply in other basins, with no unique patterns.
About 75% of the cases are in the standard pattern.
This preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base includes only eight
tropical cyclones during 2000-2001. The model forecast track errors are relatively small,
and only 33%, 62%, and 70% of the Navy global, regional, and UK Meteorological
Office models, respectively, exceed 150 n mi at 72 h. Only 12 cases of large (> 225 n mi
at 72 h) track forecast errors occur. Half of these large-error cases are associated with
erroneous model predictions in the midlatitudes. One third of the large errors originate
from improper model treatments of the tropical circulations, and the remaining two cases
originate from erroneous initial cyclone positions. Since these are the same error sources
as in other basins, the Systematic Approach has global application.
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