Window of opportunity: mitigating threats from disruptive technologies before widespread adoption

• Main Author: Knapp, Christopher R.
• Other Authors: Nieto-Gómez, Rodrigo
• Published: Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School 2014
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/43940

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited === As the pace of technology increases, so does the potential development of disruptive technology-related threats. However, by enacting proactive safety and security measures during the window of opportunity, a government can cost-effectively protect an unsuspecting and ill-prepared society before an emerging disruptive technology is widely adopted without stifling its future development. The basis for the threat mitigation approach described herein is to inject the protective measures into the innovation cycle prior to a technology being adopted by the early majority in Everett Rogers’s technology adoption cycle. This period of time (the window of opportunity) occurs when the GartnerGroup’s hype cycle’s trough of disillusionment aligns with Geoffrey Moore’s chasm. This thesis explores two possible courses of action for mitigating domestic security and safety threats once a new technology’s window of opportunity is identified. First, domestic law enforcement can use this information to mitigate future security and safety concerns. Second, the state could design a flexible regulatory framework around the window in order to provide innovators and producers of an emerging disruptive technology with information highlighting its potential for illicit appropriation.