| Summary: | Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. === The conventional wisdom concerning the future of Iraq after the Gulf War of 1990-1991 centers on the prospect of Saddam Hussein and the Bath Party being ousted from power. Should this happen, critics argue, peace, security, and predictability will return to Iraq in particular and the Middle East in general. This view of the situation is wrong. This thesis examines the political history of Iraq since the end of World War One, the formation of the Bath Party, and the Bath Party since its ascent to power in Iraq. Leadership, Institutionalization, Policies, and Legitimacy form the core of the Bathist hold on power in Iraq. In its 25 years of power the Bath Party has improved the standard of living in Iraq and penetrated society such that any change of regime will result in only marginal and superficial change. The resulting leadership may call itself by other names, but the majority of people in positions of power will be holdovers from the Bath regime.
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