A stochastic enhancement to the Analyst's WorkBench

• Main Author: Melton, Andrew W.
• Other Authors: Gary R. Porter
• Language: en_US
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2013
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32269

The Analyst's WorkBench is a deterministic integrated framework developed and used by the Weapons Planning Group at NAWC China Lake. The model has no stochastic capability which requires all analysis to be conducted using parameters based on expected values of occurrence. This thesis develops a stochastic enhancement that can be incorporated in the Analyst's Workbench. Independent identically distributed (IID) events can be generated by calls to the enhancement as a parametric input. To demonstrate the application of a stochastic process within the Analyst's WorkBench, a test scenario of a ship defense model is developed. A large scale missile attack is simulated deterministically and stochastically to demonstrate the differences of a random probability of successful defense vice an expected value of success. It is shown that the stochastic results provide a more realistic simulation and that the deterministic results overstate the capability of a system subject to random events that can be described by a statistical distribution.