Understanding recent variability in the Arctic sea ice cover - synthesis of model results and observations

• Main Author: Whelan, John.
• Other Authors: Maslowski, Wieslaw
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/3217

This thesis provides a continuation of the analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean by examining results from the NPS 1/12 degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better representation of ice volume variability. The skill of the model is examined by comparing its ice thickness output to actual sea ice thickness data gathered during the last three decades. The model comparison is made against the most recently released collection of Arctic ice draft measurements conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1979 and 2000. The NPS model indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. The validation of model output with submarine upward-looking sonar data supports this result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future. The diminishing Arctic sea ice will have significant implications for both the physical and operational environment in which the U.S. Navy currently operates.