| Summary: | This thesis examines the effectiveness of the U.S. Navy's enlisted personnel development policies. Regression analysis is utilized to assess longitudinal data from the 1979, 1982, and 1985 Navy enlisted cohorts. The thesis evaluates the potential of these data to predict the performance of enlisted personnel. A major focus of the thesis is the differential impact of racial ethnic background on performance. Some light is shed on the Navy's equal opportunity programs with respect to their short- and long-term influence on advancement rates for different racial/ethnic groups in the three cohorts. The results of the empirical analysis support the conclusion that racial/ethnic minorities tend to promote to pay grades E-4, E-5, and E-6 more slowly than non-minorities. However, the magnitude of the difference decreases for more recent cohorts and for promotion to the more senior ranks. The data suggest that the Navy's equal opportunity programs may have played a role in improving promotion times for racial/ethnic minority members.
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