| Summary: | This study examines the relationship between the surveyed intentions of young men to join the military and their actual enlistment behavior. Of specific concern, is how knowledge of this relationship might benefit the United States Marine Corps in achieving cost-effective management of recruiting resources. A review of selected literature examines the use of an intentions variable in manpower forecasting models as well as some of the major research efforts involving surveyed intentions. The analysis uses a longitudinal data base, created by merging responses from the 1976-83 Youth Attitude Tracking Study (YATS) with Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) cohort files, to examine the connection between an individual's self-stated propensity to enlist and his subsequent behavior. The analysis also attempts to describe selected characteristics of individuals who joined the military -- including demographic variables, quality indicators, and measures of performance -- on the basis of their YATS response. There was no conclusive evidence of major differences in the characteristics of enlistees who were initially positive or negative toward joining the military. However, the results of the study do suggest that different combinations of intentions and demographic characteristics may lead to different patterns of enlistment behavior. Keywords: Marine corps personnel, Theses. (sdw)
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