Coast Guard drug interdiction: a renewal-reward approach to determine optimum investigation time

• Main Author: Copeland, Eric A.
• Other Authors: Gaver, Donald Paul
• Language: en_US
• Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/22947

A renewal-reward model is developed to predict the optimum amount of time that Coast Guard personnel should spend investigating a vessel for illicit substances. The optimal investigation time is determined with respect to three criteria; maximizing the number of arrests, maximizing the quantity of drugs confiscated, and minimizing the quantity of drugs that escape detection. A simulation study indicates that the optimal investigation time is very sensitive to underlying distributional assumptions. The basic service system model may have wider application, i.e., to combat modelling, where it may be desirable to investigate a potential target to estimate its value before committing limited resources. An adaption of the model may also be of help in allocating resources for mineral exploration. Keywords: Theses, Drug trafficking