| Summary: | Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited === A method for predicting swell from tropical cyclones using a spectral wave model (TYWAVES) was tested. The model was applied to predicting swell propagating from three typhoons in the Western North Pacific through gaps in the Ryukyu Islands into a region of the East China Sea. The model involves a source region concept which considers only the swell emanating from regions of peak energy in moving typhoons. For three representative typhoons, predicted heights were not significantly different from the observed heights. The time of occurrence of the predicted height agreed well with observational values for the swell from two typhoons, but lagged by 6-12 hours for the third. The dominant swell period and direction predicted by the model were not verifiable for this study. Shoaling and refraction effects were considered in the prediction, in a simplified way, but attenuation was ignored even for the passage of energy through the Ryukyu Islands.
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