Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees

Historical combat data analysis is a way of understanding the factors affecting battle outcomes. Current studies mostly prefer simulations that are based on mathematical abstractions of battles. However, these abstractions emphasize objective variables, such as force ratio. Models have very limited...

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Main Author: Coban, Muzaffer.
Other Authors: Lucas, Thomas W.
Format: Others
Published: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School 2012
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10945/1342
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spelling ndltd-nps.edu-oai-calhoun.nps.edu-10945-13422017-05-24T16:07:02Z Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees Coban, Muzaffer. Lucas, Thomas W. Operations Research Historical combat data analysis is a way of understanding the factors affecting battle outcomes. Current studies mostly prefer simulations that are based on mathematical abstractions of battles. However, these abstractions emphasize objective variables, such as force ratio. Models have very limited abilities of modeling important intangible factors like morale, leadership, and luck. Historical combat analysis provides a way to understand battles with the data taken from the actual battlefield. The models built by using classification trees reveal that the objective variables alone cannot explain the outcome of battles. Relative factors, such as leadership, have deep impacts on success. This result suggests that combat simulations will have a difficult time predicting combat outcomes unless we can better account for these intangible factors. Historical combat analysis helps us comprehend these factors. The classification model predictions on test sets reveal correct classification rates as high as 79 percent. Considering the variability in the data set this outcome is satisfying. Classification models also reveal that the factors affecting outcome of battles have changed throughout history. The leadership advantage played an important role for hundreds of years. However, in the 20th century, air sorties, tanks, and intelligence showed a higher importance. Turkish Army author 2012-03-14T17:31:20Z 2012-03-14T17:31:20Z 2001-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10945/1342 227993646 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, may not be copyrighted. xx, 104 p. ; application/pdf Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
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description Historical combat data analysis is a way of understanding the factors affecting battle outcomes. Current studies mostly prefer simulations that are based on mathematical abstractions of battles. However, these abstractions emphasize objective variables, such as force ratio. Models have very limited abilities of modeling important intangible factors like morale, leadership, and luck. Historical combat analysis provides a way to understand battles with the data taken from the actual battlefield. The models built by using classification trees reveal that the objective variables alone cannot explain the outcome of battles. Relative factors, such as leadership, have deep impacts on success. This result suggests that combat simulations will have a difficult time predicting combat outcomes unless we can better account for these intangible factors. Historical combat analysis helps us comprehend these factors. The classification model predictions on test sets reveal correct classification rates as high as 79 percent. Considering the variability in the data set this outcome is satisfying. Classification models also reveal that the factors affecting outcome of battles have changed throughout history. The leadership advantage played an important role for hundreds of years. However, in the 20th century, air sorties, tanks, and intelligence showed a higher importance. === Turkish Army author
author2 Lucas, Thomas W.
author_facet Lucas, Thomas W.
Coban, Muzaffer.
author Coban, Muzaffer.
spellingShingle Coban, Muzaffer.
Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
author_sort Coban, Muzaffer.
title Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
title_short Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
title_full Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
title_fullStr Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
title_full_unstemmed Predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
title_sort predicting battle outcomes with classification trees
publisher Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
publishDate 2012
url http://hdl.handle.net/10945/1342
work_keys_str_mv AT cobanmuzaffer predictingbattleoutcomeswithclassificationtrees
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