| Summary: | Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited === This thesis attempts to verify, validate, and then expand a model of the population of college students that may be qualified and interested in seeking a commission in the United States Marine Corps. The model supports allocation of recruiting goals, location of officer recruiter resources and boundaries, and analysis of the officer recruiting market. It functions by generating institution-level forecasts of the male baccalaureate cohort, by race and attendance status, and above a certain test eligibility threshold. This research conducted a survey of colleges and officer recruiters. It determined that the model cannot be validated, for the postsecondary education system cannot provide precise measurements. College survey responses are enhanced with imputation, and then compared against the model's output in order to gain some understanding of the model's performance. The study then proposes a measure of college student propensity to seek a commission, based on historic measures of commitment. Finally, the research develops a flexible spreadsheet application that enables recruiting planners to analyze and forecast population trends through fiscal year 2004. === Major, United States Marine Corps
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