| Summary: | Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited === Materiel Returns Program (MRP) credits have increased 1st Marine Logistics Group's (1st MLG) total obligation authority by an average of 27% annually since 2008. However, 1st MLG has been unable to leverage the MRP in budget execution due to an inability to forecast future credits. The purpose of this research is to determine whether analysis of historical MRP credits at 1st MLG could enable the comptroller to forecast future credits, which would enable 1st MLG to leverage MRP credits and budget more efficiently in a constrained fiscal environment. This research utilized descriptive analysis of historical credits to identify systemic patterns or trends associated with MRP. The analysis of MRP credits focused on two specific areas: (1) the accuracy of credit estimates provided by the sources of supply (SOSs), and (2) the amount of time it took for 1st MLG to receive the actual credit. The primary finding of this research was that 1st MLG should be able to forecast MRP credits. The research showed that historically over a two-year period, SOSs accurately estimated credits 88.3% of the time and SOSs issued 95% of all actual credits within 90 days of 1st MLG submitting an item into MRP.
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