| Summary: | Thesis (M.Com. (Finance)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2014. === The purpose of this paper is to develop a forecasting equation from the
dividend discount model. Our reduced form asset pricing equation features
lagged dividend per share, term spread, short-term interest rates, infl ation
rates, the output gap and real exective exchange rates. The results indicate
that our forecasting model has significant and powerful relationships and
outperforms the other models which are compared against it. We conclude
that the reduced form forecasting model has merit and can influence the
portfolio decisions of profit-seeking investor.
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