| Summary: | Climate change is a very current and contentious issue that has received a lot of
attention during the past two decades because of its global influence and impact.
Climate change affects the entire globe and the impact is mostly continental and
regional and is not limited along state borders. Whether a person or group believe in
the existence of global warming or not, the scientific evidence leaves no doubt that
the climate is changing (Mazo, 2010: 9). Climate change influence the environment
people live in and have a direct impact on all aspects of their daily lives.
In a globalized world almost all problems cross borders, and environmental issues
have long been recognized as among the most international and the most
transnational of all (Parsons, 2009: 5). Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” by
exacerbating existing vulnerabilities, and must be analysed in relation to the adaptive
capacity of those affected (individuals, communities and states), taking account of
the wider political, socio-economic and demographic context (ACCES, 2011: 9).
Although climate change has a global impact, the African continent is likely to be
more severely affected than other regions of the globe and it will have a profound
negative impact on all facets of human security.
Long-term shifts in the climate seem likely to catalyse conflict by creating or
exacerbating food, water and energy scarcities, triggering population movements,
and placing larger groups of people in competition for more and more limited
resources. Increased climate variability, including the greater frequency of extreme
weather events, will also complicate access to resources, thereby exacerbating
conditions that are conducive to promoting conflict.
Southern Africa is described as a predominantly semi-arid region with high intra-
seasonal and inter-annual rainfall variability, with extreme events such as droughts
and floods occurring frequently. In Southern Africa, there has been an increase in
inter-annual variability of rainfall over the past 40 years, with more intense and
widespread droughts. Floods and droughts in Southern Africa are gradually
increasing in number and frequency as well and already the entire region is
considered a climate change "hotspot".
As can be seen from the findings of the various chapters, climate change has a very
complex predicted impact on all the dimensions of human security and a few major
key issues in this regard came to light. These issues include urbanisation, migration,
environmental degradation and biodiversity loss, water scarcity, spread of diseases,
slow onset climate change, economic decline and poverty, criminality and conflict.
The most profound issues that will have an impact on South African border integrity
and safeguarding include urbanisation, migration, environmental degradation and
biodiversity loss, water scarcity, spread of diseases, economic decline and poverty,
criminality and conflict. Migration can be singularly highlighted as it has the potential
to amplify and exacerbate all of the abovementioned issues.
States have national security strategies and policies in order to guide policy and
legislation to adequately protect the state from threats and to determine national
security priorities. Border safeguarding is an important aspect of state security and
strategy, policy and legislation, informed by the national security strategy and policy,
constantly have to evolve and adapt to changes in the threat pattern affecting states.
The border safeguarding environment of any state is very complex and faced with
multiple external and international threats. Climate change-related human security
threats will further amplify and complicate these threats as the impact of climate
change becomes more pronounced in the southern African region. In order for South
Africa to successfully address these threats in the border safeguarding environment
it is important that a sound National Security Strategy and Policy provide focus and
priorities for all government departments involved. This is a very complex field with
multiple factors and only the key issues are highlighted and discussed in this paper.
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