Revisiting three political risk forecast models: an empirical test

• Published: 2009
• Subjects: Country risk evaluation; Foreign investments
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/2555

M.A. === The discipline of political risk analysis has often been criticised as a ‘soft science’. As the title of this study suggest, the major challenge of this study is set out to provide an empirical analysis of political risk and to prove that political risk can indeed be measured. The aim of this study is to provide an empirical analysis of political risk by testing the reliability of current risk assessment approaches to accurately forecast political risk. There have not been many attempts to test the reliability of political risk assessment models. However, Howell & Chaddick (1994) tested the reliability of three (EIU, PRS and BERI) political risk assessment models to accurately forecast risk projections in the period 1982-1994. This study will revisit the test done by Howell & Chaddick (1994) in order to determine the reliability of three forecast models. In order for forecasts to be reliable, forecasts must be justified and defended by applying practical logic. Practical logic implies that theory be tested against real world experience. Hence, a reliable analysis will require that actual losses be tested against theory. Therefore, in addressing the connection between theory and actual losses, this study will correlate losses incurred in the period 1994- 2004 with theory. Due to the nominal nature of the concept political risk, there has been a lack of consensus in the field on what constitute political risk. This study will provide a conceptual clarification of political risk. A brief discussion of the underlying theoretical background in political risk is required in order to understand the concept of political risk and terms thereof. Hence, this study will establish a theoretical base of political risk analysis. This study argue that low political risk encourage foreign direct investment. The relationship between political risk and foreign direct investment will be analysed in this study. It is hoped that in light of this study’s findings, a case can be putt III forth that multi-national corporations can use political risk analysis to minimise exposure to losses and as an extension of political risk analysis, multi-national corporations can use political risk insurance to hedge against political risks. The outcomes of this study aim to prove that political risk can be empirically tested and measured and that the analysis of political risk is essential to successfully manage political risks.