| Summary: | Even though livestock farming has been identified in the Integrated Sustainable
Rural Development Strategy as the agricultural sub-sector with the most likely
chance of improving household food security and addressing poverty alleviation
in the small-scale farming areas of South Africa, the reality is that the small-scale
cattle sector has not achieved its full potential despite many efforts through
research and development programmes. Previous studies have mainly identified
factors impeding participation of small-scale farmers in both informal and
mainstream markets and the extent or degree at which participation is affected.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the probability of small-scale cattle
farmers participating in mainstream markets and measure the impact of change
of selected variable on the probability to participate. This is a departure from
previous research in that the study attempts to identify those factors that have the greatest probability to increase participation in mainstream markets by smallscale
farmers.
The study was conducted in three different areas, namely Hammanskraal,
Ganyesa and Sterkspruit. The sampling technique used in Hammanskraal is the
stratified random sampling technique. In Ganyesa all the identified farmers were
interviewed. Since the number of small-scale farmers was unknown in the
Sterkspruit area the snowball sampling technique was used. The total sample
size is 150 small-scale cattle farmers.
A logit model is used in this study. Since multicollinearity in the data was
identified principle component (PC) analysis was used to deal with this problem.
After PCâs were calculated and PCs with the smallest eigenvalues were
eliminated, principle component regressions (PCR) were fitted using the
standardized variables to improve the estimation power of the logistic regression
model.
Partial effects of the significant continuous variables (i.e. herd size, desired
market distance, household size, lobola, dependents, theft, household assistance and mortality) on the probability to use mainstream markets are relatively small.
However, partial effects for the significant discrete variables (i.e. market
information, remittances, training and farming systems) are more significant. The
increase in the probability to participate in mainstream markets if the initial
conditions are addressed range between 0.3 and 0.6.
Simulations with regard to a base group of households revealed training and
access to information will have the largest positive impact on the probability of
small-scale cattle farmers to market their cattle through mainstream cattle
markets if initial conditions improve. Although desired distance to markets, herd size and household size have the potential to increase off-take to mainstream
markets, its potential impact is less that training and access to information.
The impact of remittances and lobola on the small-scale cattle sub-sector, risk
behaviour and the informal market are areas that need further research.
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