| Summary: | ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural production takes place in an uncertain and complex environment, with
production the result of the culmination of a variety of factors within a greater system.
Consequently, accounting for the influence of variables in the production system is very difficult,
making it a daunting task for decision makers to make good decisions. In the wine grape
production context, this problem is accentuated due to the capital intensive and perennial nature
of investments, also giving rise to a path dependency. As a result it is essential to make
strategically sound decisions in order to ensure the long-term profitability and financial
feasibility of wine grape production. Decision making tools, like a model, can be of invaluable
support for strategic decision making. A model is used to simplify reality, by imitating and
simulating the actual system as closely as possible. A simulation model was therefore developed
for this thesis to be able to evaluate the long-term financial impact of different wine grape
production systems and to support strategic decision making. This model can be adapted to
individual farm specific features, scenarios and preferences, in the evaluation and analysis of
different investment and wine grape production system decisions. For this study, the nature of
agricultural systems as well as qualities required by a simulation model, were investigated. The
former is followed by an investigation of the effect of the grapevine and trellis specific qualities
on the possibilities of the production system, as well as the implication of capital budgeting and
financing considerations on the performance of the wine grape production system. In view of the
above, the model was then applied to simulate and evaluate different wine grape production
systems as well as a structural transition and expansion of wine grape production, for a simulated
farm in the Breedekloof region, South Africa. The model can be used for decision making and
scenario planning purposes by wine grape producers and stakeholders in the wine industry. === AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Landbouproduksie vind plaas in ‘n komplekse omgewing met talle onsekerhede, waar produksie
die resultaat is van ‘n aantal faktore binne ‘n groter geheel. Die uitdaging is dus om die
spesifieke invloed van veranderlikes binne die produksiestelsel waar te neem sodat besluitnemers
ingeligte besluite op grond daarvan kan maak. In die verbouing van langtermyn gewasse,
spesifiek die van wyndruif verbouing, word hierdie probleem beklemtoon vanweë die kapitaal
intensiewe en meerjarige aard van investerings, wat aanleiding gee tot die afhanklikheid van
vorige besluite. Ten einde die langtermyn winsgewendheid en lewensvatbaarheid van wyndruif
produksie te verseker, is strategiese en ingeligte besluite deurslaggewend. Hulpmiddels in die
besluitnemingsproses, soos modelle, kan onskatbare ondersteuning bied in hierdie konteks. Die
doel van ‘n model is om ‘n werklike stelsel te weerspieël, maar terselfdertyd word
vereenvoudigende aannames gemaak. Vir die doeleindes van hierdie tesis is ‘n simulasie model
ontwikkel om die langtermyn finansiële impak van verskillende wyndruif produksiestelsels te
weerspieël en strategiese besluitneming te bevorder. Hierdie model kan aangepas word vir die
individuele vereistes, voorkeure en kenmerke van individuele plase, ten einde verskillende
investeringsbesluite en wyndruifproduksiestelsels te evalueer. Vir die doeleindes van hierdie
studie is die aard van die stelsel waarin landbouproduksie plaasvind, asook eienskappe wat
benodig word deur ‘n simulasiemodel, om ‘n goeie weerspieëling van die werklikheid te kan gee
ondersoek. Daarna is die invloed van die prieëlstelsel oorweging op die wingerdstok, die
uitvoerbaarheid van verskillende bewerkingspraktyke, asook die invloed van kapitaal- en
finansiëringsoorwegings op die prestasie van die wyndruifproduksiestelsel ondersoek. In die lig
van bogenoemde oorwegings is die model gebruik om verskillende wyndruifproduksiestelsels te
simuleer en te evalueer, asook om ‘n strukturele oorgang en uitbreiding vir ‘n plaas in die
Breedekloofstreek in Suid-Afrika te ondersoek. Wyndruif produsente en belanghebbendes in die
wynbedryf kan hierdie model in scenario beplanning en besluitneming gebruik.
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