| Summary: | Thesis (MScEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. === ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In terms of its contribution to the agricultural economic activity in Namibia, the small stock industry is
the most important sector, second only to the beef industry. This sector makes a significant
contribution to the agricultural business in Namibia due to the sector’s exports, its provision of
employment, use of natural resources, contribution to GDP and to consumer spending as well as food
security. Agricultural activities in Namibia contributed 5.5 percent to Namibia’s GDP, while 70 percent
of the population relies on agriculture for employment and day-to-day living.
Livestock farming in Namibia is free ranging on natural pastures and therefore produces high-quality
meat that is in high demand in both the national and international markets. Small stock production in
Namibia is unstable due to the high variability of weather patterns, changes in economic and social
environments, unpredictable droughts as well as political and structural changes. Due to the decline
in mutton production over the last years, research in the supply economics of the mutton industry in
Namibia is important.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the various price and non-price
factors contributing to the supply dynamics within the mutton industry in Namibia. Two hypotheses
are tested with the aid of econometric modelling techniques on monthly time series data. The
Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to co-integration was used to determine the long-run and
short-run supply response elasticities towards economic and climatology factors.
Results showed a significant long-run relationship between the average Namibian mutton producer
price and mutton supply. Results revealed that a one percent increase in the mutton producer price
leads to a 1.97 percent increase in mutton supply. Beef producer price, a substitute product to
mutton, showed a significant negative long-run effect towards mutton production whereas rainfall
showed a meaningful positive long-run contribution to mutton supply. These supply shifters towards
mutton production also showed significant short-run elasticities. Results further revealed that the
system takes nearly two months to recover to the long-run supply equilibrium, should any
disturbances occur within the supply system.
The study showed that price-related and climatological factors play a major role in the Namibian
mutton production industry. Industry stakeholders and policy makers should therefore incorporate
these significant relationships between supply shifters and production output into future decisions and
marketing policies to secure a healthy, growing and sustainable mutton industry in Namibia. === AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In terme van bydrae tot die landboubedryf in Namibië is die kleinveebedryf die tweede belangrikste
sektor, net kleiner as die land se grootveebedryf. Die sektor maak ‘n betekenisvolle bydrae tot die
landboubedryf in Namibië deur middel van werkskepping, die gebruik van natuurlike hulpbronne,
bydrae tot Bruto Binnelandse Produk, uitvoere, verbruikersbesteding sowel as voedselsekerheid.
Landbou-aktiwiteite dra by tot 5,5 persent van die Bruto Binnelandse Produk van ‘n land waar meer
as 70 persent van die bevolking afhanklik is van landbou om ‘n bestaan te kan maak.
Veeboerdery in Namibië geskied ekstensief op natuurlike veld wat lei tot die produksie van ‘n hoë
kwaliteit produk, wat hoog in aanvraag is in plaaslike en internasionale markte. Kleinvee produksie in
Namibië is onstabiel as gevolg van fluktuasies in weerpatrone, veranderings in ekonomiese en
sosiale omgewings, onvoorspelbare droogtes asook politieke- en struktuurveranderinge. As gevolg
van die huidige afname in skaapvleis produksie is navorsing in die aanbodkantekonomie van die
skaapvleisbedryf belangrik in Namibië.
Die doel van hierdie studie is om die verwantskap te ondersoek tussen verskeie prys en nie-prys
faktore wat bydra tot die aanboddinamika van die skaapvleisbedryf. Twee hipoteses word getoets met
behulp van ekonometriese modelleringstegnieke op maandelikse tydreeksdata. ‘n Outoregressiewe
verspreide sloeringbenadering tot ko-integrasie is gebruik om die langtermyn en korttermyn
elastisiteite tussen ekonomiese en klimaatsfaktore vir die aanbod van skaapvleis te bepaal.
Resultate dui op ‘n betekenisvolle langtermyn verwantskap tussen die gemiddelde Namibiese
produsente prys en skaapvleis produksie. Resultate wys daarop dat ‘n een persent styging in
skaapvleis produsente prys ‘n 1,97 persent styging in skaapvleis aanbod het. Die beesvleis
produsente prys, ‘n substituut vir skaapvleis, het ‘n beduidende negatiewe effek getoon oor die
langtermyn op skaapvleis produksie. Reënval het ‘n beduidende positiewe bydrae getoon ten opsigte
van skaapvleis aanbod. Hierdie aanbodsfaktore het betekenisvolle korttermyn elastisiteite getoon.
Resultate het ook getoon dat die stelsel twee maande neem om te herstel tot die langtermyn
aanbodsewewig, sou daar enige drastiese veranderings in die stelsel plaasvind.
Die studie het getoon dat prysverwante en klimaatsfaktore ‘n uiters prominente rol speel met
betrekking tot skaapvleisproduksie in Namibië. Bedryfsaandeelhouers en politieke leiers sal hierdie
betekenisvolle verwantskappe tussen produksie faktore en aanbod uitset in ag moet neem in
toekomstige beplanning en bemarkingsbeleid om ‘n gesonde, groeiende en volhoubare
skaapvleisbedryf in Namibië te verseker.
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