| Summary: | The objective of the research was to determine the extent to which marketing in general, and the Mohair Scheme in particular, played a part in the re-emergence of South Africa as the world's leading mohair producer. The two major components of the Scheme, the 'voorskot', or initial payment, and reserve prices were analysed separately. In an adaptive expectations, distributed lag model of supply adjustment, only the weighted rainfall and the average real net price of mohair during the previous season, were found to be important determinants of mohair production. The significant negative correlation between the average real net 'voorskot' price and mohair production was contrary to expectations, and probably due to the 'voorskot' always having been set well below the market price. The 'voorskot' may nevertheless have played an important part in making the Scheme as a whole acceptable to producers. As no record is kept of the reserve price, its influence was tested indirectly in two stages. In the first, its influence on price stability was determined by a comparison of ranges, standard deviations and variances, and by several multiple linear demand regressions. Three of the four models showed clearly that price stability was increased by the Mohair Scheme. In the second stage, formulae and diagrammatic analyses were used to assess the welfare gains and losses resulting from the Mohair Scheme. There was a welfare gain to local producers and most of the welfare costs of the Scheme were borne by foreign consumers. With this gain to producers and the more stable price, it was concluded that the reserve price had stimulated mohair production. It was therefore established that the Mohair Scheme had played a major part in the re-emergence of South Africa as the world' s leading mohair producer. Nevertheless, in view of the massive stockpiling in recent seasons, because the reserve price was set too high, the result was a substantial loss to the Scheme; it was therefore recommended that the Mohair Scheme be discontinued or, at least, that the reserve price should be set at a much lower long-run, market clearing level.
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