The Impacts of Expected Structural Changes in Demand for Agricultural Commodities in China and India on World Agriculture

• Main Author: Tangen, Alyssa
• Format: Others
• Published: North Dakota State University 2019
• Subjects: Grain trade > China > Econometric models.; Grain trade > India > Econometric models.; Agricultural productivity > China > Econometric models.; Agricultural productivity > India > Econometric models.; Grain trade > Econometric models.; Agricultural productivity > Econometric models.
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29866

The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in import and export demand in China and India on the United States and global agriculture in 2018. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize production and trade in China, India, and other major importing and exporting regions in the world. This research focuses on four primary crops: wheat, com, rice and soybeans. In the model China and India are divided into 31 and 14 producing and consuming regions, respectively. The model also includes five exporting countries and ten importing countries/regions. The results indicate that India will be able to stay largely self-sufficient in 2018 and China will increase its soybean and com imports to meet rising domestic demand. The research also gives perspectives on production and trade in the United States and other major exporting and importing countries.