Entropic Considerations of Efficiency in the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Market

• Other Authors: Sagul, Ryan (author)
• Format: Others
• Language: English
• Published: Florida Atlantic University
• Subjects: Capital market > Psychological aspects; Energy industries > Risk management; Financial risk management > Mathematical models; Futures; Investment analysis; Petroleum industry and trade > Economic aspects; Stocks > Mathematical models
• Online Access: http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004730; http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004730

For the last fifty years, the efficient market hypothesis has been the central pillar of economic thought and touted by all, despite Sanford Grossman’ and Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz’ objection in 1980. Andrew Lo updated the efficient market hypothesis in 2004 to reconcile irrational human behavior and cold, calculating automatons. This thesis utilizes 33 years of oil futures, GARCH regressions, and the Jensen-Shannon informational criteria to provide extensive empirical objections to informational efficiency. The results demonstrate continuously inefficient oil future markets which exhibit decreased informational efficiency during recessionary periods, advocating the adaptive market hypothesis over the efficient market hypothesis. === Includes bibliography. === Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2016. === FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection