Improving operational resilience in the face of cascading disasters

• Main Author: Pescaroli, Gianluca
• Published: University College London (University of London) 2018
• Online Access: https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.756367

The growing complexity of global interconnected risk suggests that a shift has occurred in the way emergency planners need to improve preparedness and response to cascading events. Although new modelling and forecasting tools are increasing the availability of mitigation options, further work is needed for creating and consolidating theories, policies and practices. This thesis develops an integrative and impact-oriented research process for increasing operational resilience to cascading disasters. It is structured in two complementary steps. (a) The definition of a coherent framework for cascading disasters, which goes beyond the "toppling dominoes" metaphor commonly associated with cascades. In this phase of the work, a theory building process is applied, along with a review of the literature, a comparison of case studies, and use of scenario methodologies. (b) The theoretical findings have been applied to the development of an empirical analysis that aims to increase the operational resilience of the city of London to cascades. The second part of the work was carried out in collaboration with the London Resilience Partnership. First, it investigates the perception of cascading risk and interdependencies in the Partnership in order to define possible strategies to improve training, mitigation and policy-making. Secondly, it supports the improvement of London's ability to maintain its operational resilience to cascading effects that involve wide are power failures. This includes the development of practical guidelines for training and a gap analysis for policy makers. In conclusion, the thesis defines a list of actions that should becoming strategic priorities for decision makers, and it proposes new questions for scholars and practitioners in the field to answer.