Decision making under uncertainty : the case of Middle East Gulf dry bulk shipping companies

• Main Author: Al-Shatti, Faisal
• Published: Nottingham Trent University 2017
• Online Access: https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.748555

This research focuses on middle management tactical decision-making under uncertainty in a highly volatile business/market environment. In particular, this research focuses on chartering managers in the dry bulk ship-owning and ship-operating companies in the Middle East Gulf region, while making their daily chartering decisions under uncertainty. Under the umbrella of bounded rationality, the approach of this research goes through the managerial psychology of the chartering managers in Middle East Gulf (MEG) shipping companies, and the effect of the heuristics and biases on their decisionmaking. Descriptive and normative approaches to decision making, heuristics, biases, dual process decision-making model, control over heuristics, analytical intervention, and explicit reasoning are the key concepts constructing this research's framework. The aim of this research is to design a ship-chartering decision-making model that can streamline chartering managers' decision-making process, assist MEG ship owners and operators in improving the value proposition for their ships while underway, and contributes to the enhancement of their efficiency. This research employs a mixed-methods approach, where both qualitative and quantitative techniques have been used to collect the required data. After applying suitable analyses' techniques, this document synthesizes the qualitative and quantitative findings to develop the components of the looked-for decision-making model. The findings of this research reveal the chartering managers' predominant decisions, the heuristics frequently used by chartering managers in MEG, the emanating biases in ship chartering decisions, and the task-related factors affecting the initial intuitive stage. The findings of this research also identify the factors affecting the top-down control over heuristics in ship chartering decisions in MEG dry bulk shipping companies, and the sources of the bottom-up control. Building on the work done by Jonathan Evans on dual process modeling, and the recent work done by Gordon Pennycook, Jonathan Fugelsang, and Derek J. Koehler on the three-stage dual process modeling, this research introduces a revised three-stage dual process decision-making model that is specifically designed for ship chartering decision-making in Middle East Gulf shipping companies.