Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems

We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element, the Stochastic Replicator model....

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Piovani, Duccio
Other Authors:	Jensen, Henrik
Published:	Imperial College London 2015
Subjects:	519.2
Online Access:	http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.684339

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spelling	ndltd-bl.uk-oai-ethos.bl.uk-6843392017-08-30T03:17:23ZAnalysing and forecasting transitions in complex systemsPiovani, DuccioJensen, Henrik2015We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element, the Stochastic Replicator model. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived for the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently.519.2Imperial College Londonhttp://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.684339http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/31380Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
collection	NDLTD
sources	NDLTD
topic	519.2
spellingShingle	519.2 Piovani, Duccio Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
description	We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element, the Stochastic Replicator model. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived for the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently.
author2	Jensen, Henrik
author_facet	Jensen, Henrik Piovani, Duccio
author	Piovani, Duccio
author_sort	Piovani, Duccio
title	Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
title_short	Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
title_full	Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
title_fullStr	Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
title_full_unstemmed	Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
title_sort	analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems
publisher	Imperial College London
publishDate	2015
url	http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.684339
work_keys_str_mv	AT piovaniduccio analysingandforecastingtransitionsincomplexsystems
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Analysing and forecasting transitions in complex systems

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