Secular increase in natural fertility in China from 1940s to 1980s

• Main Author: Pu, Yonghao
• Published: London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London) 1997
• Subjects: 304.6
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.645480

The purpose of the study is to explore the trend in natural fertility and its components in China over half a century from the 1940s to the 1980s. One of the most important components of fertility, natural fertility and its secular rising trend in modern China, have never been systematically addressed, thus providing the scope for the present study. By fully using recent information on China's population and social development, this thesis documents and analyses the trend of natural fertility in China since the 1940s. The literature review of natural fertility and its proximate and background determinants comes as the first part after the introduction. An important methodological part of the study comes next. The main data sources are introduced, problems of applying Coale and Trussell's model are discussed and an adjusted version of the model is proposed. Finally, technical problems are also addressed, including such matters as modifying data sources to meet required measurements, assessing the limitations of estimated results, suggesting ways to avoid data truncation and so on. The major part of the thesis consists in the next four chapters, which involve a thorough demographic analysis of natural fertility levels and trends for the nation as a whole, and of different aspects such as urban-rural differentials, regional variations and educational divergences. The proximate determinants: fecundability and birth intervals, breastfeeding, primary sterility, and age at first marriage are also analyzed at length. Finally, the importance of socio-economic conditions on natural fertility change is analysed. The quantitative relationship between natural fertility and these socio-economic conditions was statistically tested and an analytical model was built, which proves to be well able to simulate the identified trends in natural fertility.